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Tuesday, April 19, 2005

A Democrat landslide...


I just saw this over at
Kevin Drum's site

I expect the 2008 race to be very crowded. For a variety of reasons, 2008 is likely to be a landslide win for whoever the Democratic candidate turns out to be, and I think lots of Dems know it. That's why John Kerry is still sounding like a candidate: he doesn't want to be the unlucky Al Smith watching from the wings while someone else cruises to the presidency because they had the good luck to pick the right year to run.

So my question is why is 2008 likely to be a landslide for the Democrats? What are the reasons? This really baffles me, since I have no sense of this; perhaps it is because I left the US and am out of touch. Okay, so I know the 'line of succession' is unclear at the moment (Cheney isn't going to run... that we know of!) and that some Republicans feel that a bit of a civil war is coming (according to Joe 'needs a slap' Scarborough) in the party, yet that still doesn't translate to me as a landslide. So fill me in, what are the reasons and why are they different to the reasons before the last election?


Cross Posted at Cabal.


UPDATE:
Kevin has explained why he thinks the landslide is coming. Hmmm, not convinced. Too many variables to call something like that at this moment. One of the largest being that no one knows who will be on the tickets and what their views will be. It could be that the Republican ticket is far removed from the George W Bush model and will still appeal to the American people. I think it is way too early to call, though speculation is fine.

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