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Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Prediction

It is polling day in the US of A.

The midterm elections are upon them and for the left it is time to send a message to Bush that America isn't happy. Of course one could argue that he isn't actually big on listening to messages outside of those he wants to hear. In fact plenty of left wing blogs have made that argument in the past so exactly why they think these elections will make a difference as it pertains to Iraq I am not sure.

Anyway, time for some predictions. I have looked at the polls for the past few weeks and noted a narrowing margin between the Dems and Repubs though still in favour of the the Dems. That said I also not that US polls in recent years have been virtually worthless therefore I predict that the Republicans will retain both houses.

Why do the polls tend to mislead? I don't know, some might claim liberal bias in the situations where they trend left. I have heard one argument that the reason is that the pollsters (or poll sponsors) lean left and so promote a leftward lean in the polls. This seems like crazy talk to me; if I was a lefty pollster and wanted to influence the election I would skew the poll rightward to scare the left supporters into the polling booths. By skewing left one only encourages complacency.

Anyway, like I said. I predict the GOP to hold both houses.

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3 comments:

hrun said...

Seems like you were wrong. :)

Kav said...

I certainly was. Hello fella, long time no see. Hope you are well.

hrun said...

I'm doing alright. I am rather pleased by the results of the election, even though I am not sure how it will help much with Iraq. In the end, I don't expect the Dems to magically fix Iraq. The situation is screwed up and either way it will cost a lot of people their lives. And I fear that your assessment of the situation in your "How wrong could I be?"-post might very well turn out to be prophetic. The Republicans will probably try their best to blame anything that goes wrong in Iraq and the Democrats in the House and the Senate.

One of the few things I hope the takeover of the House and Senate means, is that there will finally be some accountability for the lies we have been fed about the war. Let's see. In any case, the next couple of years will be interesting.